Collective Forecasting bringing the wisdom of the crowd to FX

Arjun Hassard, CEO of Myriada, explains how the concept of crowd wisdom works and the benefits that collective forecasting could bring to the FX trading environment.

First Published: e-Forex Magazine 58 / Social Media / October, 2014

Though it passed with no fanfare of note, August 20th 2014 was a significant day. Not just for a fledgling FinTech startup, but for collective intelligence as a monetisable concept. At midnight on the 20th, the DollarRupee (USD/INR) exchange rate was approximately 60.74. An innocuous enough figure, but exceptionally difficult to have known a full quarter in advance. Yet on May 20th of this year, a collection of 53 high profile fund managers and emerging markets foreign exchange experts attempted to do just that. At the EMFX Trading Summit in London, they partook in an unprecedented experiment, harnessing the power of collective intelligence in order to forecast the topical USD/INR rate a full 3 months ahead of time. A rare privilege for Myriada access to the minds of the busiest people in the professional world only possible thanks to the experimental appetite of the Summit organisers.Collective Intelligence You may well be wondering, what on earth is collective intelligence? Though it spans multiple...continued

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