Currency Clips Archive

Brief news and analysis from around the world of FX

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Growth Prospects Improving for Aussie in 2017

It is the optimism about the growth in year 2017, which has shrugged off the losses for the Aussie after its brutal GDP number. If you look at the county’s GDP, it has not contracted since March 2011. Thus, there was no surprise that we have seen such a reaction by traders when the GDP number was released. ...show more

Testing China

Beyond US shores, nowhere has Trump’s election as the next US President been more acutely felt as it has in Asia and on Asian currencies in particular. ...show more

Where next for Sterling?

It has been a torrid few months for the pound, with the outcome of the Brexit referendum providing the fi rst of a series of notable legs down for the pair. Cable for example may be trading a few cents above those 31 year lows of 1.20 which were touched in the wake of the “flash crash” at the start of October, but does sterling deserve to be looking so depressed as 2016 comes to a close?...show more

Italy says no, ECB still on the dovish side

It was clear that against a backdrop of global crisis, Italy would defy its government and not allow it the chance to apply European austerity policies. Matteo Renzi has made a wise decision by announcing his dismissal as he does not represent what Italians want. ...show more

The Brazilian real stands out

In theory at least, the carry trade should not exist. But theory and practise often diverge and even more so in the FX markets. Carry is what you make from the interest rate differential between two currencies. Currencies are money and money bears interest, so if you borrow (go short) in a lowyielding currency and invest (go long) in a high yielding currency, you will receive positive carry (or interest)....show more

Pound weakness can unwind in Q4

The British pound was the worst performer since the beginning of this year compared to G10 currencies. This drop intensifi ed after the U.K electorate voted in favour of a referendum to leave the EU. Meanwhile, Sterling fell by more than 13% against the U.S Dollar before finding a temporary low around 1.2798 level....show more

German economy suffers and ECB is still on the dovish side

Over the past weeks, German data has provided quite a disappointment after July factory orders came in below expectations at 0.2% m/m vs. 0.5% m/m. In addition, July industrial production was also very weak. Consensus bet on a quasi-fl at print at 0.1% m/m but the fi gure was released in negative territory at -1.5% m/m. Germany’s economic data is very troubling, especially when we consider that the country is the main driver of the Eurozone....show more

The Aussie Dollar - where to go from here?

A weaker currency is mostly considered as the key by most central banks if they want to stimulate growth. Monetary policy is the common approach that they use to devalue the currency. The currency warmed to a level of 0.6859 at the start of this year when the Fed were immensely bullish with respect to their interest rate hike. Nevertheless, it then regained its losses by touching the high of 0.7810 in late April for this year which was nearly over 14.75%; a signifi cant move when it comes to currency trading. Since then, we have given up some of these gains, but it is still up nearly 11.07% since the start of this year....show more

What’s driving growth in trading of Asian currencies?

The recent past has shown a growing interest among currency traders to trade in Asian currencies, with the currency contracts listed on exchanges in Dubai and Singapore witnessing a growth or 30% or more in the year 2015. ...show more

Gravity and the Brazilian real

The performance of emerging market currencies can often be split between domestic factors and overall sentiment towards EM in general. One of the major forces driving overall sentiment over recent years has been expectations of higher interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. There are two primary reasons for this. The first is the fear of and/or actual reversal of flows that were driven by the Fed’s easy monetary policy of recent years. Second is the pressure from EM dollar denominated debt, increasing the funding pressure on EM governments and corporates. But it’s not been the be all and end all of the past 3 years, which have seen EM FX as an asset class lose around one-third of its value....show more

More to come from the Yen

As the Brexit referendum looms, the focus is on GBP pairs both before and after the vote results. Here in the Middle East, investors will be the first to trade the currency market immediately after the referendum purely due to the time difference. At the moment Middle East investors overwhelmingly believe that the UK will remain in the EU. As a result, these same investors will likely turn to GBPJPY due to its fast movements, and this is good for ‘hit and run’ traders. Despite the notable rise across the board that began in December of last year and has continued until today, it appears that there is still more to come from the yen in the next few weeks. USDJPY has lost more than 14.5% since mid-December of last year, despite the introduction of negative rates by the Bank of Japan and the Government delaying a sales tax increase until 2019. ...show more

The CHF set to strengthen on Brexit fears

Unlike many other financial market events, the EU referendum not only has potentially extreme consequences but is also purely binary. Opinion polls are showing a dead heat between the “leave” and “stay” votes, with numbers well within the margin of error. This could mean the UK is in the EU on June 23 and planning an exit strategy on June 24. For financial markets, Brexit would have significantly greater consequences than a “remain” vote, so that is what we are focusing on – not because we like chaos but because that is where the greatest risk lies....show more

A roller coaster ride with the Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar has had a roller coaster start and after a massive selloff, we have reached a low after touching the 0.685 mark. Investors are facing the question as to whether this is a line in the sand or not but the only way to answer this is to look at the policy stance by the Royal Bank of Australia....show more

Vulnerability of Asian currencies in the next half

For the second half of 2016, Asian currencies continue to be vulnerable owing to weakness in economies and uncertainty on US rate hikes prospect. We look at some of the issues on 4 of the biggest economies in Asia. ...show more

Middle East investors head for the Yen

From the middle of 2015 through the start of this year Middle East investors and traders have moved into the currency markets, in large numbers, to hedge their local equities investments primarily buying the Japanese yen....show more

The Brazilian real: Every dog has its day

Sometimes in the world of finance the simple approaches can work out the best. ...show more

The ECB tries everything

There is definitely something that cannot be hidden, the current European crisis is deeper than expected....show more

Will the Aussie Dollar head lower in 2016?

Will the Aussie Dollar head lower in 2016?...show more

Spotlight on the ECB

We expected some market volatility with the ECB meeting in December. There were signifi cant expectations concerning how far President Mario Draghi will expand the QE programme. The infl ation target of 2% has been said to be the primary objective of the central bank and Draghi mentioned that he will do whatever it takes to boost Eurozone infl ation -and growth - in the near future. ...show more

AUD: Navigating the China slowdown

When the Chinese economy roared out of the gates and onto the global stage, its major trading partners were the envy of the world. Australia, with approximately a quarter of its total exports going to China, was one of the lucky few. However, as the initial Chinese sprint slows to a trot, the close trading ties Australia boasts have turned from an advantage into the country’s Achilles heel. Among the industries hardest hit in this economic slump is the mining sector. Iron ore ...show more

Market themes for 2016

Thinking about the direction of currencies in 2016, we have to start with the question: what will be the main themes likely to persist throughout the year? The past year was dominated by fears about global growth, particularly China; the decline in commodity prices, particularly oil; and the denouement of policy divergence between the US and the rest of the world, particularly the EU. ...show more

Middle East update

Investors in the Middle East are looking for further weakness in the Euro against the major currencies and especially against the US Dollar (USD). Although it has been a choppy ride, the consensus, looking at the open positions, is for further declines towards the parity with the USD. ...show more

Brazil – the year ahead

Last time, I looked at the impact of events in China on LATAM currencies, but as we enter a new year and a likely Fed tightening, it's worth taking a step back and a look at what the coming year may hold. ...show more

Weak GCC equities pushing investors to FX

By Noureldeen Al Hammoury Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

The LATAM split

By Simon Smith Chief Economist at FxPro...show more

IMF calls again for Greece debt relief

Yann Quelenn Market Strategist at Swissquote Bank SA...show more

Can Singapore Dollar sustain Parity Exchange Rate with the Australian Dollar?

By Kenneth Tan Forex manager at Phillip Futures...show more

Middle East Currency Update

By Noureldeen Al Hammoury Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

The LATAM split

By Simon Smith Chief Economist at FxPro...show more

How much will the ECB and the IMF compromise?

By Yann Quelenn Market Strategist at Swissquote ...show more

Malaysia's inflation under control

By Daniel Ang investment analyst at Phillip Futures...show more

EUR on the top of ME traders List

By Noureldeen Al Hammoury Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

Latam currencies - domestic factors to determine winners and losers

By Simon Smith Chief Economist at FxPro...show more

A weaker Euro to save Europe

By Peter Rosenstreich Head of Market Strategy at Swissquote...show more

A Look at the Malaysian Ringgit

By Kwah Wee Hong Forex Dealer, Phillip Futures...show more

The Central Bank of Russia faces difficult task

Jameel Ahmad Chief Market Analyst at FXTM...show more

The Middle East – the FX equivalent of Black Friday?

Noureldeen Al Hammoury Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

2015 - Stepping away from the EURCHF Floo

Peter Rosenstreich Head of Market Strategy at Swissquote...show more

Latam currencies – a look ahead

Simon Smith Chief Economist at FxPro...show more

Indonesia - taking bold steps

Yu Chung Leong Forex dealer at Phillip Futures...show more

The Middle East awaits Scottish referendum

Noureldeen Mufeed Kh. Al Hammoury Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

Latam FX – Tough going

Simon Smith Chief Economist at FxPro...show more

Scandie currencies remain interesting to trade

John J. Hardy Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank...show more

Spotlight on recent currency developments in China and Malaysia

Kwah Wee Hong FX Dealer at Phillip Futures ...show more

The zloty to retrace losses

Bartosz Sawicki Head of research at TMS Bro...show more

Scandinavia in Focus

Stan Klebaner Chief Business Development Officer at FinFx Trading Oy ...show more

Common macro backdrop, different perspectives

Bartosz Sawicki Head of Research at TMS Brokers...show more

Asian currencies to weaken versus the USD in H2 2014

John. J. Hardy Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank...show more

The last thing FX needs is the World Cup!

Noureldeen Mufeed Kh. Al Hammoury Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

C&EE

Solid fundamentals favor the zloty...show more

Scandinavia

A backdrop of falling inflation...show more

EM currency turmoil leads to increased ME flow

Max Knudsen Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

A view from Asia - Q1 2014

The current view from Asia is driven by macro factors such as US tapering policy, recovery in the economies of key Western countries, and the risk that growing concerns of a Chinese slowdown negatively impact appetite for the region. ...show more

Latin America

Mexican Peso could be a star EM currency in 2014...show more

Scandinavia

Finnish and Swedish markets perform well...show more

C&EE

regional currencies less vulnerable than six months ago...show more

The Middle East looks to the East and the West

Max Knudsen Chief Market Strategist at ADS Securities...show more

Update Middle East

Q2 followed the pattern of previous years in the Middle East.  Volumes through April, May and June exceeded all expectations with flow from GCC based institutions and inward flows from Asia and Europe setting new records.  Targets which may have seemed in doubt after a lack luster Q1 were brought right back into play.  ...show more

A view from Asia

Storm clouds have been forming in Asia recently as macro liquidity tightens. ...show more

Spotlight on Latam – God must be Brazilian

When events are turning their way – Brazilians like to joke that “God must be Brazilian”. Well lately…. The ‘hand of God’ is more of a slap....show more

Scandinavia

Nordic-based volume at FinFX Oy decreased 15% from the previous quarter (Q1 2013). ...show more