This phenomenon closely resembles historic Q2 turnover figures as evidenced by our statistics in 2012 through 2010. Despite the fall-off both Danish and Norwegian metrics experienced an uptick of 30% and 10% respectively. Our analysts are forecasting a net gain of 25% from the Nordic clients in Q3 of 2012 as compared to the previous quarter.
Key FX news
The most significant FX news came from Finland; where on May 15, 2013, FIN-FSA announced its intention to regulate the rolling spot F/X contract. The domestic regulator has deemed that trading based on the rolling spot contract is by its nature an investment service; and as such should be considered an enactment of the Act on Investment Services. Finnish domiciled entities looking to service investors in the FX market will be required to pursue the aforementioned licensing requirements.
For Q3 we anticipate that the global environment for the Norwegian krone (NOK) should gradually improve over the fall. In early Q3 the market reacted violently to the weak Q2 Norwegian GDP figures and sent the NOK to its weakest levels in three years.
Mainland growth of a meager 0.2% was significantly weaker than anticipated and although yields have yet to react; it seems that the FX market is now pricing in an economic downturn in Norway. However, a closer look at the data reveals that both business investment and exports of traditional goods climbed again after a couple of slow quarters. Additional figures indicate near-term sustained growth in oil investment despite rumors of a slowdown in oil-related industries.
A few industry conferences of note are taking place in Stockholm during the month of November. The Nordic Trading Room: http://www.wbresearch.com/tradetechnordic/home.aspx will be held on November 12, 2013; the event will bring together more than 250 Nordic and international buy side, sell side, execution venues and technology providers from across a multitude of electronic markets.
The second key event organized in Stockholm is the Nordic FX Summit 2013:http://www.talentumevents.se/materials/nordic+fx+summit+2013/a2194499 which will be held on November 25, 2013. This event will feature FX specialists from leading Nordic asset managers, hedge funds and currency managers.